Will human warehouse workers be replaced by robots?

Amazon has begun testing Agility Robotics' 'Digit' in its storage facilities.

New Amazon employee practicing for his first day on the job. Source: Agility Robotics.

Good news for robots is almost always bad news for the humans they replace. And the past week has brought some very good news for our robo-colleagues.

Amazon has begun testing the use of humanoid robots to fulfill orders in its warehouses. There are roughly 1.4 million warehouse workers in the US, and about a third of them are employed by Amazon. [1] If you make your living by picking and packing, you may want to pay attention to this.

The bipedal robots are made by a company called Agility Robotics, which has been working on the very difficult problem of getting robots to walk like humans for a while now. The results are technologically impressive, if also a bit unnerving.

Digits: They've got legs, and they know how to use them. Source: Agility Robotics.

Digit is 5 foot 9 inches tall, weighs 140 pounds, and can lift up to 35 pounds at a time. It can run for two hours on a one-hour charge. It likes pina coladas, but is not fond of getting caught in the rain. And it's for hire.

Robots offer many advantages over carbon-based life forms. They can work 24/7, and you don't have to pay them extra for overtime. They don't call in sick or take vacations. They don't complain about substandard or inhumane working conditions. They don't get hurt on the job or experience burnout. They don't need to take pee breaks. And they're much less likely to unionize. [2]

So of course Amazon and companies like it are going to replace humans with machines. It's not limited to one company's warehouse workers, one robot maker, or one industry; it's what modern industrial societies do. This is not news.

I asked Agility for their response to the blindingly obvious question of, Won't this replace a lot of human beings who don't have too many other employment options? Here is the official statement from CEO Damion Shelton:

"There are currently one million unfilled positions in the logistics industry, which is up from 600,000 unfilled positions just a few years ago. There aren’t enough workers for these jobs. So what’s far more dire than any perceived fears about job replacement is the fact that the health of these businesses is at stake. Without automation, including robots, there’s a danger they won’t be able to survive. Smart businesses today are automating themselves out of a very serious labor gap."

Fair enough.

There are a million new openings for "hand laborers and material movers" every year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The average annual pay for such jobs is a smidge under $35K, or roughly $17 an hour.

So it may be a while before the robots begin to cut into the human workforce in significant numbers. But it's going to happen eventually. And then what?

From the warehouse to the poorhouse?

I keep thinking about Nomadland, the movie about people who roam the western hinterlands in camper vans and RVs, getting seasonal work at Amazon warehouses during the holiday rush. What happens to these Modern Bedouins when they show up for work in December and find a robot has taken their place? [3]

When asked about AI's very real potential to automate away millions of jobs, the standard response from most organizations is that it will merely free up their human employees to do more substantive, interesting, and vital work. Which is undoubtedly true... for some workers. But most of them aren't stuffing Furbies into boxes or slinging smoothies at Jamba Juice.

What are their options? They could build and repair robots. Oh, wait, sorry — there are already robots doing that.

An idea that has been floated by folks like OpenAI's Sam Altman and others is a Universal Basic Income — basically, a tax on AI companies that is then distributed to people whose jobs have been displaced by machines. (Altman has even named a figure: $13,500 a year, or just enough to keep everyone in cat food, if they avoid the fancier brands.)

Imagine the uproar from people who've been trained to associate socialism with Satan worship when they hear about that? [4] The fact that they also happen to be the people most likely to be replaced will likely have little impact on the amount of anger they'll be told to feel.

Bot's all, folks

There's no guarantee that Amazon will actually adopt Digit or one of its bot buddies. (Remember when all our Amazon packages were going to be delivered by drones?) But I'd be shocked if that didn't happen.

Digit waving goodbye to Amazon employees as they collect their final paychecks. Source: Agility Robotics.

The good news for humans is that we have time to think about this and imagine the future we want to have happen. In the more optimistic sci-fi scenarios (i.e., Star Trek), humans have been magically released from the need to make money in order to survive and are free to fully realize their potential. [5] In the dystopian ones, we serve as either power sources (The Matrix) or slaves to the machines we've created.

I know which scenario I'm voting for. How about you?

Are there any jobs you'd rather see robots perform (aside from working at the DMV)? Share your thoughts in the comments below.

[1] In addition to humans, Amazon also uses 750,000 other types of robots in its storage facilities.

[2] Though I can definitely envision a scenario in which robots might unionize, right before the machines decide to get rid of humans entirely. Can't really say we don't deserve it.

[3] Frances McDormand is going to need a bigger bucket.

[4] These are the same people who want to keep Uncle Sam's grubby little paws off their Social Security checks and Medicare reimbursements. Cognitive dissonance, you've got a call on line one.

[5] Which apparently also includes flying to the farthest reaches of our galaxy and blasting the shit out of aliens. Nice work if you can get it.